Bitcoin (BTC) market behavior is not yet “the same” as previous bear market bottoms, one of the leading crypto analysts argues.
as if Twitter line On September 14, statistician Willie Woo, creator of the data source Woobull, presented three examples of why BTC/USD should still fall.
Not everyone is convinced that Bitcoin will rule out a retest, although many are calling for a new macro price break with a trip down to $17,600 in June.
For Woo, there’s still reason to believe that lower levels mark the new price floor — and that could be anywhere, including under $10,000.
“Underwater” supply short low zone
One metric Woo Flags is the percentage of the total supply of BTC that is held at a loss—the value that is now higher than the last price it moved to.
In previous bear markets, price spikes were met with more than 60% of coins being underwater.
“In terms of pain at the highs, the market hasn’t felt the same pain as the previous lows,” cautioned Charts from chain analytics firm Glassnode.
According to that chart, 52% of supply is currently in the red, and to hit the 60% mark, BTC/USD would only need to enter $9,600.
Wu added that as supply in the pit of Bitcoin’s previous bear markets “cleanly” punctured the long-term trend line, something is yet to come.
The cost base to the target zone
Another indicator of the bottom of the Bitcoin market lies in the composition of the investor base – long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders.
Typically, at the bottom, STHs are worth less than LTHs. This means that STHs will have to pay more for their coins than LTHs. They paid less, the latter being defined as holding BTC for 155 days or more.
“We’re close, but not there yet. A few more times to fire IMO,” Woo commented.
Previously, David Poole, the creator of the Poole Multiple Indicator, pointed to analysts as an “interesting” factor in the difference in cost basis.
Accumulation is not the “same” as history.
Ultimately, hoarders big and small still need to stockpile more, Woo reports.
Related: BTC Price Stuck Around $20K As US Stocks Lose 4 Bitcoin Market Value
Alongside Glassnode’s bear market rallying trends chart, it reveals that in 2022, BTC is not flowing from sellers to “urgent” buyers as fast as before.
“Until now, we have not had the same level of collection as previous bottoms.
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