By Marcus Soterio, analyst UK based digital asset broker GlobalBlock
Below the ATH reached in 2017, Bitcoin fell over the weekend at around $19,600. Coinglass, a trading and information platform, revealed that Bitcoin had $600 million in liquidity as it fell to a low of approximately $17,600. Bitcoin has suffered around $300 million in liquidity, while Ethereum has endured $200 million.
Despite this bearish move, Bitcoin closed the week strong above $20,000 and some on-chain gauges suggest a macro bottom or temporary bottom may be near.
Why are so many altcoins showing strength against Bitcoin and Ethereum?
Relatively speaking, we’re not seeing the same waterfall in altcoins, and they’ve generally shown strength over the past week or so. Because Bitcoin and Ethereum are the primary collateral for leveraged positions, and the fact that we can see different liquidity values on-chain, a lower estimate can be expected. I also think the main reason we haven’t seen buying pressure for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the last couple of weeks is because major buyers have been able to see other people’s liquidity levels.
What do the metrics on the chain suggest about the recent decline?
Glassnode’s on-chain analysis shows that the liquidity crisis over the weekend resulted in the largest loss of US dollars in Bitcoin history. Over $7.325 billion in Bitcoin losses were locked in by investors, and approximately 555k Bitcoin changed hands between $18,000 and $23k. Data from Glassnode shows that investors with 1-year coins have a higher motivation for the ‘Renewed Offer Last Active 1+ Year BTC’.
Finally, as Bitcoin hit a low of $17,600, only 49% of the supply was in profit. As we can see from Glassnode on this chart, historical bear markets have been consolidated with supply bottoms between 40% and 50%.
Based on historical data, all of these indicators suggest that Bitcoin has reached a temporary low or that a bear market has begun to bear down. Looking at this historical data, it is important to note that Bitcoin has not gone through periods of constant inflation. We may be nearing the bottom of a generation as more forced liquidations occur, but we cannot be confident of sustained growth until inflation drops convincingly.