Bitcoin’s price has yet to recapture $20K, but there is a silver lining.

In the year Markets were briefly in the green on September 27th, as stock markets bounced back from September 26th, bringing the price of Bitcoin (BTC) back to long-term downtrend line resistance.

Unfortunately for the bulls, the positive momentum in stocks and cryptocurrencies was quickly eroding and Bitcoin’s price dropped below $19,000, giving up most of the inward gains.

As seen from March 25, the price of BTC was unable to step above the resistance for more than a few hours and the breakdown of the trend on September 27 continues the trend of the next bear flags.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

According to Arcane Research, Bitcoin’s tight rally above $20,000 is relatively insignificant, as futures premiums remain low and “did little to improve the market’s risk appetite.”

BTC Perpetual Contract Funding Rate vs. Bitcoin Price. Source: Arcane Research

Additional data from Arcane Research shows that funding volume has remained neutral for the first time since September 13, but overall, traders are reluctant to increase longs due to concerns over macro challenges and unfriendly crypto regulation.

There is a silver lining

As mentioned in the previous analysis, despite the ups and downs, the price of BTC has easily traded in the correct range of $24,300 to $17,600 over the past 103 days. As of today, an indicator to set a breakdown below the transfer low or push price above resistance and confirm the previous barrier as the support has not yet formed.

Fortunately, it’s not all doom and gloom for Bitcoin. A good bit of news comes from on-chain analytics provider Glassnode, which notes that many mature investors have decided to hunt and hold their positions rather than sell at current prices.

According to Revised Supply’s 1+ year metric, an indicator that tracks “the total amount of coins that return to circulation untouched for at least 1 year,” the latent supply flow moving into an active supply pool is “very heavy. Low.”

Renewed supply 1 year+ Z points. Source: glassnode

The 2018 bull market’s closing stages of mature costs are absent in recent retracements below $20,000, suggesting that long-term holders are well accustomed to volatility and are unwilling to sell at current prices.

Renewed supply 1 year+ Z points. Source: glassnode

With BTC off its all-time high of 72% and a section of investors expecting the next unexpected capital event to crash to $10,000, one can interpret the lack of panic selling by mature investors as a positive.