Hurricane Ian: 5 Reasons Retirement Favorite Tampa Is At Risk From Hurricanes And Climate Change Impacts

It’s been more than a century since Hurricane Ian struck the iconic Tampa Bay area in Florida. Modern life means we are better at warning people. This also means major residential expansion and coastal commercial development and an increased risk of hurricanes harming more lives and property.

A report from CoreLogic estimates that more than one million Florida homes could be damaged by the storm. Authorities ordered 2.5 million people to evacuate.

As Ian finished warming the Gulf of Mexico, it was gathering strength from the southwest or Gulf of Florida by Wednesday morning. As it did, it came close to being classified as a Category 5, the highest, or most dangerous, rating.


“Obviously, when you look at the Tampa Bay area, one of the reasons we fear hurricanes is the sensitivity of this area and the vulnerability of this area,” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said this week.

Related: A late hit will keep Ian expensive and a high-risk hurricane season on track, due to climate change.

There are big differences between that wave of the century and now. First, the environment, the warm weather, the opportunities for recreation and the permanent pension given to no individual income tax, made it swell from a few hundred thousand people in 1921 to more than 3 million today.

But unlike the 20s and earlier, like the 1900 hurricane that hit Galveston, Texas, communities in the path of hurricanes in Florida and elsewhere fared better with early warnings. They can rely on modern means of communication, such as cell phone alerts and planned evacuation routes. But that is typically only true for those who are physically able and able to afford to flee.

Read: A pension protected from climate change? Ask the tough questions about real estate and property insurance

Here are 5 to consider the Tampa area, the state and the nation to follow, but as many investors consider retirement in the shape of climate change in the future.

It’s not just wind, it’s flood.

Even homeowners who are not in the direct path of a hurricane need to understand the overall weather system that accompanies the hurricane, including Gulf waters and rainfall and flooding.

Some weather models are predicting 15 inches or more of rain across much of Florida, hurricane expert and meteorologist Athena Masson of Flagler College wrote in an interview. Regardless of landfall, most of the Florida peninsula will see impacts from Hurricane Ian.

In fact, as Ioan continues to move north, it will push the waters of the Gulf of Mexico northward. This is a tidal wave, and it raises the water level, and the waves increase their destructive power over it.

“The gulf acts like a big bathtub, and when strong storms come into this region, they help raise the water because of the low barometric pressure,” Mason said. “In addition, the storm’s strong winds push the water in the direction the storm is moving. Since land surrounds the Gulf of Mexico, this water has nowhere to go but inland.

Experts aren’t yet sure how big Ian will be, she said, which refers to his reach, not his strength. A major hurricane like Irma in 2017 will have more cloud cover and therefore more rain. The storm reaches a large area with large waves. If the storm is strong enough, it could even create a storm surge on the eastern side of the Florida peninsula, like Irma did in northeast Florida, Mason said.

Yes, climate change affects attitudes.

With notable exceptions, hurricanes moving along the Gulf of Mexico tended to pass well north of Tampa, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, said in its research.

But according to NOAA and other research bodies, warming in the Gulf of Mexico and sea level rise is possible, and will continue, as atmospheric warming is mostly caused by the burning of CL00.
The US and other major economies have pledged to halve emissions by 2030 and move to net-zero emissions by 2050, but the level of success so far has been mixed.

Angela Colbert, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, wrote, “Because of global warming, global climate models predict that storms will produce more intense rainfall and the risk of coastal flooding will increase.” Report it.

Not the best details to rest on

A 2015 report by Boston-based disaster modeling firm Karen Clark & ​​Co. said Tampa Bay is the most vulnerable area in the U.S. to hurricane-induced flooding. Accordingly, it will lose 175 billion dollars in damage due to hurricanes.

A World Bank study ranked Tampa as the seventh most hurricane-prone city in the world.

And there is heat to consider

Of course Florida is hot. Here’s the deal. And life on the beach brings a cool breeze.

Apparently, the threat of heat isn’t deterring most snowbirds, at least not yet. As Axios reported this week, 9 of the 10 fastest-growing major U.S. metro areas are getting hotter — and many are at risk from other natural disasters. On the list? Fort Myers, Fla., south of Tampa.

But new research and an accompanying planning tool show that the region’s seven hottest days on average across the US are expected to become the hottest 18 days by 2053.

Read: A quarter of the US falls in the high heat belt. Here are the states in the red zone.

That year, 1,023 U.S. counties are expected to exceed 125°F, which is home to 107.6 million Americans and covers a quarter of the U.S. land area, according to the nonprofit First Street.

Researchers at First Street earlier this year unveiled their latest tool, the Vulnerability Factor, which is freely accessible and increasingly used in real estate listings, especially in partnership with The Brooklyn-based group now covers flood, wildfire and heat risk developed specifically for the housing market.

Property insurance can be difficult. Especially for floods. And especially in Florida.

Real estate agents, mortgage lenders and other experts in the industry believe buyers aren’t asking enough climate change questions, especially if they plan to stay in a property for years — and the industry isn’t required to disclose as much either.

Risa Palm, a professor of urban studies and public health at Georgia State University, and colleagues in the political science department, Toby Bolson, wrote in a commentary about their efforts to document real estate’s commitment to climate change data.

The two surveyed 680 licensed Florida real estate agents in late 2020. Their responses indicated that prospective home buyers do not routinely consider elevation or flood risk when looking for new homes, and the availability of updated flood hazard maps has had little or no impact on them.

Led by the deadly and costly Hurricane Ida, which caused massive flooding in the US and Europe, the world will record $329 billion in severe weather-related economic losses in 2021, and only 38 percent of that bill is covered by insurance.

Furthermore, even where insurance can be considered, the scope of action will be short when it comes to climate change. Property insurance is based on one-year risk calculations, looking at the completed year. The formula does not work as a proxy for the risk of long-term assets, including houses, as the risk increases in the climate. Changing gifts.

The evolution of insurance may be obvious in some areas, but typically with price jumps that shock consumers. That’s already happening in Florida, for example, where many traditional insurance names have pulled out, in part because of litigation to force insurers to pay more. But immigration has reached a point that some who cover the sector regularly are calling it a “crisis.”

Instead, specialty insurers known as excess and surplus (E&S) carriers are pushed into these areas. They carry more risk and are often licensed outside of the state in which regular insurers are issued. For consumers, this may mean an opportunity to buy insurance despite the high cost.

The Associated Press contributed..

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