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Following its lowest weekly close in nearly two years, Bitcoin (BTC) faces a volatile macro environment as the new week begins.
As risk assets in the global economy take a heavy hit and the US dollar rises, the biggest cryptocurrency is flowing. After a massive start, September is suddenly living in a “September” spread in the crypto market, with BTC/USD down 6.2% from the start of the month. The bad news is coming for hodlers, as the dollar rises, so does the holding of dormant coins and the public’s willingness to turn to risky plays.
This week, macro is expected to be everyone’s priority. Here we will analyze what the price movement of Bitcoin holds. Here are some guesses as to where Bitcoin is headed given the economic conditions that rival the significant historical upheavals of the past century or so.
BTC/USD will return to the weekly close of November 2020
Despite the past seven days, Bitcoin has managed to settle at its lowest weekly level since November 2020. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView does not match last week’s losses (3.1% versus 11% decline).
As the downward pressure intensified, Bitcoin therefore pulled back from its previous half-cycle all-time high before the breakthrough.
The average holler doesn’t like the feeling of déjà vu because most of what he bought and stored in the cooler in the last couple of years is now underwater. Prominent Twitter analyst SB Investments said after the event: “Looks bearish on stocks looking to break support. $BTC recorded its lowest weekly result in this zone. On the other hand, everyone expects this.
For bitcoin supporters, critical resistance markets can pull a sudden “high pain” to the top, which eliminates the short bias. The weekly close of $18,800 serves as a compelling domestic bottom for popular trader Omz. In other markets, the difference in the RSI did not go unnoticed; Trader JACKIS announced it was coming last week.
At the time, he tweeted, “Always marked the right bottom. We’ve only had the sold territory twice before. The U.S. midterm elections are in early November, and trade accounts continue to predict an earnings shark inversion but refrain from predicting a bottoming out.
On the day’s 4-hour chart, there is a “elevator down, stairs up” note:
“Continue to build double bottoms and new supports, midterm rally remains on the table. Break this structure, avoid these targets and find a new bottom.”
Stocks, fiat destroyed by dollar wrecking ball
The volatility that pervaded macro markets last week returned with a vengeance as Monday began. Great Britain’s pound sterling made headlines on the day as it fell 5%, falling within a few percent of parity against the US dollar – its lowest level ever against the greenback. Key trading partner currencies are being eroded by an unstoppable US dollar. The Japanese government was forced to artificially prop up the yen last week as GBP/USD lost ground against the euro and fell below $1.
UR/USD temporarily fell below $0.96 before making a modest recovery, and despite Japan’s participation, USD/JPY is still near 1990s highs. In the year Alerts are being issued for global bonds, which have fallen to levels last seen in 2020. Bloomberg’s data was accompanied by a warning from market analyst Holger Zshapitz: “The bond market bubble seems to have burst.” Global bond prices fell by another $1.2tn this week, bringing the total loss from ATH to $12.2tn.
Stocks are expected to perform similarly, as futures were lower on Wall Street the day before the open. Brent crude oil has never fallen below $85 a barrel since early 2022. “Global bonds are collapsing against their fiat currencies, which is collapsing against the dollar, which is rapidly losing purchasing power,” responded Cydean Amos, author of the best-selling books “The Fiat Standard” and “The Bitcoin Standard.” : “It will be months and years before the average fiat user realizes how financially screwed they are. Poverty is the “new normal”.
The outlook for Bitcoin is less than bullish as the cryptocurrency is still inverse to the strength of the dollar and tied to stocks and the current trend looks set to continue.
The euro area consumer price index (CPI) is due this week and is expected to show continued inflation. However, the publication of the Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index (PCE) is expected to continue the US decline that began in July. Currently at its highest level since May 2002, the US Dollar Index (DXY) does not appear to be turning around.
Hodlers working in traditional bear market mode
It’s no surprise that long-term investors are reluctant to sell, and amid such chaos, the confidence of Bitcoin hodlers is growing. Recent data suggests that this year’s ongoing hoarding has been a feature of bear markets in Bitcoin. According to onchain analytics company Glassnode, the so-called Coin Days Degraded (CDD) indicator for Bitcoin is dropping to new lows.
When Bitcoin is withdrawn from the host’s wallet at the end of the specified time period, the number of dormant days (CDD) is deleted. A higher CDD indicates that more long-term accumulated coins are currently active.
According to Glassnode, “The total amount of Bitcoin coin-days destroyed in the last 90 days has, effectively, reached an all-time low. This shows that coins that have been HODLed for several months to years are more dormant than ever.
The announcement comes after several weeks of hodl-specific metrics showing a commitment to keep BTC supply locked up and for the foreseeable future. As a percentage of the USD supply of BTC, Glassnode highlights the occurrence of coins that have been stored for at least three months. “Bitcoin HODLers seem steadfast and unwavering in their convictions,” he agreed.
The supply is shown in the following graphic, which divides the Bitcoin HODL Waves scale by coin dormancy.
Support and opposition are still decided by the whales.
When it comes to spotting price movements, analysts are watching a large number of Bitcoin investors while veteran users stay away from the “Sell” button. Due to the volume of trade involving whale money in the past, the current trade is a zone of interest.
According to the chain tracking tool Whalemap, BTC/USD is currently caught between two resistance levels with large buys lending more weight to a particular support price and resistance levels being similar. Holding 19k–18k is critical for $BTC, according to the Whalemap team summary at the end of last week.
The chart linked to the article shows that Bitcoin can only recover to $20,000 at the whale resistance level. However, additional data from research firm Sentiment shows that whales’ overall BTC exposure has dropped to a two-year low.
Week Two “Extreme Fear”
The sentiment of the cryptocurrency market has been in “severe fear” mode for more than a week now, as usual, 2022 has returned to normal. According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, the average investor could not feel more anxious about the future.
The Fear and Greed score was 21/100 as of September 26, with a score of 25/100 indicating extreme fear. This year the market had a longer “severe fear” than ever before, lasting more than two months, so cold feet is nothing new.
Increased social media interest over the weekend may offer some hope, Santiment said. This week was partly reflected in Twitter comments “among top 100 crypto assets, $BTC focuses on 26%+ talk for first time since mid-July”.
“Our backtesting is that 20% + given to Bitcoin is good for the sector,” the author wrote.
Tamadoge coin will be launched on the OKX exchange
Stay tuned to the crypto news feed here on InsideBitcoins for more updates on Tamadoge’s first exchange listing as the September 27th listing date approaches. The OKX website announced that the TAMA withdrawal will be open at 13:00 UTC on the listing day. Investors should do their own research and consider all factors before making a high-reward decision. TAMA’s full paper and roadmap can be read here.
Tamadoge – Meme Play to earn coins
- Get TAMA in battles with Doge’s pets
- Sealed Supply of 2 Billion, Token Burn
- Presale collected 19 million dollars in less than two months
- The upcoming ICO on the OKX exchange
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